http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/03/fiscal_policy?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/goldmanestimate
Absent the cuts, growth would roar ahead at 5% for the year (which is more in keeping with a rebound from a recession of the depth America experienced).
Republicans, however, want to trim a a total of $61 billion from the current budget—more than the $25 billion over all of 2011 that Goldman used as a placeholder. And so Goldman estimates that these cuts will take off an additional 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points from annualised growth rates (which is what is always reported) in the second and third quarters.
That's nothing to sneeze at, of course, especially given the fact that Republicans have made no pretense of using cost-benefit analysis to identify wise cuts, and given that there is no immediate crisis, and given that the main fiscal imbalance is associated with long-run growth in health costs, not short-run growth in non-defence discretionary spending. But it's a smaller impact than the $300 billion in lost growth many reported, and it's much closer to Mr Bernanke's assessment. So there: mystery solved.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Post Carbon: Energy efficiency could transform the South - Juliet Eilperin
Post Carbon: Energy efficiency could transform the South - Juliet Eilperin: "The Georgia Tech-Duke analysis, released Monday, says 'aggressive energy-efficiency initiatives' could keep energy
consumption in the South's residential, commercial and industrial facilities 'from growing over the next twenty years.' That could lead to the retirement of 25 gigawatts of older power plants, and render unnecessary the construction of 49 gigawatts of new power plants.The study also estimates that such measures would generate $2.25 in jobs and economic activity for every $1 spent on making residential, commercial and industrial facilities more energy efficient."
consumption in the South's residential, commercial and industrial facilities 'from growing over the next twenty years.' That could lead to the retirement of 25 gigawatts of older power plants, and render unnecessary the construction of 49 gigawatts of new power plants.The study also estimates that such measures would generate $2.25 in jobs and economic activity for every $1 spent on making residential, commercial and industrial facilities more energy efficient."
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Questions for Banks That Put Together Complex Deals - NYTimes.com
Questions for Banks That Put Together Complex Deals - NYTimes.com: "But Wall Street, as it is wont to do, took the concept to another level, creating securities that allowed investors to make side bets on the housing market. Known as synthetic C.D.O.’s, they did not raise money for home loans or serve any other broad economic purpose.
Instead, like a casino offering blackjack along with slot machines and Texas hold ’em, they were just one more way to bet against the housing market.
Now, the question in Washington is whether other banks, in addition to Goldman, might face legal action stemming from their role in this market. Bank analysts on Wall Street, too, are trying to figure out who might have done deals similar to Goldman’s, exposing them to potential liabilities."
Instead, like a casino offering blackjack along with slot machines and Texas hold ’em, they were just one more way to bet against the housing market.
Now, the question in Washington is whether other banks, in addition to Goldman, might face legal action stemming from their role in this market. Bank analysts on Wall Street, too, are trying to figure out who might have done deals similar to Goldman’s, exposing them to potential liabilities."
Monday, April 19, 2010
Robert S. Eshelman: World People's Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth Kicks Off in Bolivia.
Robert S. Eshelman: World People's Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth Kicks Off in Bolivia.: "As the Bolivian conference gets underway, another conference is coming to a close. The U.S. State Department, this week convened a two-day meeting of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, a group comprised of the 17 leading global economies. The U.S. is seeking to link any commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to other leading economies' commitments to do the same, particularly China, India, and Brazil. This is a significant departure from the historic burden placed upon rich nations under the Kyoto Protocol to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, while developing nations need only reduce the carbon intensity of their economies."
Technology Review: Blogs: Potential Energy: Natural Gas May Be Worse for the Planet than Coal
Technology Review: Blogs: Potential Energy: Natural Gas May Be Worse for the Planet than Coal: "But experts are warning that natural gas might not be as clean as it seems.
In fact, using natural gas rather than diesel in vehicles could actually increase climate change, says Robert Howarth, professor of ecology and environmental biology at Cornell University. 'You're aggravating global warming more if you switch,' he says."
In fact, using natural gas rather than diesel in vehicles could actually increase climate change, says Robert Howarth, professor of ecology and environmental biology at Cornell University. 'You're aggravating global warming more if you switch,' he says."
Technology Review: Blogs: Potential Energy: Iceland Volcano Won't Cool the Planet
Technology Review: Blogs: Potential Energy: Iceland Volcano Won't Cool the Planet: "The eruptions of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano, while impressive and large enough to shut down air traffic in Europe, don't fit the bill."
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